Market overview

Around 96.6% of TBC Bank’s operations take place in Georgia, a growing economy with dynamic transport, service and tourism industries that takes advantage of the country’s central geographic location, educated population, natural beauty and renowned hospitality.  

Georgia

Economic growth remains robust

Even as growth normalises, Georgia’s economic activity remained strong in 4Q 2023 with 6.8% real GDP growth YoY bringing the full year 2023 growth to 7.5%.

External sector – normalisation of inflows

The negative impact of lower international commodity prices on both exports and imports noticeably affected external sector activity in 4Q and full year 2023. Specifically, exports and imports denominated in US dollars decreased by -0.3% and -2.7% YoY in 4Q which caused their growth for the full year to moderate to 9.1% and 14.0%, respectively. Importantly, these commodity price dynamics particularly affected domestic commodity exports, while re-exports performed strongly. At the same time, the notable increase of the share of IT services in Georgian exports continued, with a major driver being the arrival of migrants in 2022.

Given the high base effect caused by elevated immigration in 2022, tourism inflows decreased by 12.6% YoY in 4Q 2023 as migrants are gradually being counted as residents by the NBG and hence being excluded from the tourism sector, while growth for the full year was 17.3%. At the same time, the share of conventional tourism in total inflows has increased recently as spending excluding visitors from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine increased by 38.2% YoY. Therefore, while the migration peak has likely passed, conventional tourism inflows have at least had a balancing impact. Also, despite decreasing notably in 4Q, remittances also maintained a positive momentum throughout the year after adjustment for Russia, increasing by 27.9%¹ YoY. A high base effect combined with a significant decline in debt instruments and lower reinvestments drove a 22.3% annual reduction in FDIs to Georgia in 9M 2023. Nevertheless, taking the record high level in 2022 into account, foreign direct investments in 2023 also appear solid. 

Fiscal consolidation underway

It is important to highlight that the strong recent economic growth is not a result of fiscal stimulus. In fact, fiscal consolidation is under way. After hitting 9.2% of GDP in 2020 and a lower, but still large, level of 6.0% in 2021, the budget deficit² stood at 3.0% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023.

Credit growth has accelerated

As of December 2023, bank credit increased by 17.0% YoY, against 14.8% growth at the end of 3Q 2023 and 12.1% in December 2022, at constant exchange rates³. At the same time, as inflation remained stably low, the YoY growth in real credit increased from 14.1% in September to 16.5% in December 2023.

Low inflation enables monetary policy easing

As a result of a broadly stable GEL and sustained disinflationary pass-through from international markets, CPI inflation stabilised well below the NBG target of 3%, standing at 0.4% YoY in December. Domestic and service inflation measures also normalised around the target. Due to low inflation, the NBG delivered the year’s fourth rate cut of 50 basis points in December, reducing the monetary policy rate (MPR) to 9.5% (and it has since been cut by a further 50 bps to 9.0% in January 2024).

Despite low inflation, a reduced MPR and seasonal depreciation expectations, improved net inflows alongside NBG interventions helped the GEL to remain stable relative to the USD throughout the fourth quarter, after some volatility during the previous quarters, driven by the normalisation of foreign currency inflows. Throughout the year, NBG purchased USD 1,449 million and sold USD 169 million. The USD/GEL stood at 2.69 at the end of December, almost unchanged from 2.68 USD in September 2023 and 2.7 USD at the end of December 2022.

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan also demonstrated robust economic activity with 6.5%⁴ growth in the fourth quarter and 6.0% for the full year 2023. External trade was strong as exports of goods increased by 28.7% and imports by 33.3% YoY in 4Q, and by 25.4% and 26.3%⁶ for the full year 2023, respectively. Retail loan growth was 47.2% YoY in 2023, with mortgage credit expanding by 25.2% and non-mortgage by 66.0%⁵. Annual inflation decreased slightly from 9.2% in September to 8.8% in December, with a more pronounced deceleration evident when compared to 12.3% in December 2022⁷. The CBU kept its monetary policy rate unchanged at 14.0% in the fourth quarter, delivering only one, 100 basis point rate cut throughout 2023 in March. The UZS stood at 12,339 relative to the USD at the end of December 2023⁷, depreciating by 10% compared to December 2022, while the REER (real effective exchange rate) remained broadly stable.

Economic outlook remains supportive

After two successive years of double-digit growth in Georgia, economic activity moderated somewhat but remained strong in 2023 at 7.5%.  Further normalisation is expected with Georgia’s real GDP increasing by 5.6% in 2024 and 5.4% in 2025, according to TBC Capital projections, while the baseline for Uzbekistan stands at around 5.5% for the next couple of years.

More information on the Georgian economy and financial sector can be found at www.tbccapital.ge

 _{¹ Remittances from Russia are adjusted for double counting with tourism inflows and other similar effects, based on TBC Capital estimates.}

 _{² Per IMF program definition.}

 _{³ Based on data published by NBG and FX-adjusted by TBC, based on Dec-2023 end of period exchange rate.}

 _{⁴ Based on data published by Uzstat.}

 _{⁵ Based on data published by Central Bank of Uzbekistan.}

_{Sources: GeoStat; NBG; IMF,  Rating Agencies}

¹ _{at PPP, current prices, TBC Capital estimates}

² _{IBP, Open Budget Survey 2021}

³ _{#48 globally; World Judiciary Project, Rule of Law Index 2023}

⁴ _{World Bank, Doing Business Report 2020}

⁵ _{Fraser Institute, Economic Freedom of the World 2023 Annual Report}

⁶ _{#49 in the world; Transparency International, Corruption Perception Index 2023}